Our First Official Weather Delay!
Yes, we’ve called it off for Saturday, we’ll try again next Saturday. Normally we call it on Thursdays unless it looks this certain.
For those of you who are new to E@RTC, we call us off if there is a 30% chance of rain that Saturday and we make our decision on the Thursday afternoon before. Our weather resources get it right about 75% of the time. We only make the call if the numbers are in. We don’t forecast the weather. We can’t even predict what we’re having for dinner let alone the weather so don’t get mad when we call it rained out. Complain to the weather folks instead.
Early in our season, there is a 50% chance we’re rained out each Saturday, and there is a 100% chance, we will have a 50% chance that we’re a 30% chance of rain, in which the forecasters were right 75% of the time. There is about an 80% chance of that. But there is about a 50% chance it will happen this spring, but even that’s a guess. Our guesses are right about 70% of the time. When it comes to guessing outcome, we still beat the divorce rate. Our weather forecasting is still more reliable than your Fiat.
Some dude will still write us to argue as if they have better weather instruments in what I safely assume is in their mom’s basement. (I picture a Duran Duran poster over their bed.) Maybe they do have better gear. (The Duran Duran poster is a certainty.) Where was I going?
We use Weather Underground as our primary source of forecasting because they are right about 82% of the time. We also use NOAA to cross-check, and they too are right about 81% of the time. Your iPhone weather is wrong more often than Charlie Sheen and not a reliable source of anything, so we don’t use it, ever. It’s as if Apple gets their information several days late and runs it through fact checkers and some other committees, we just don’t know. It’s just wrong too often.
If it’s a close call, we also double-check local TV weather reports who tweak some of the data on their own and we average all that data to come up with a number. NOAA is always a good read and when they have no idea, they will say so. We also like Cliff Mass a lot. Our goal is to make that right call, but even then, we’ve had our share of getting it wrong on the Thursday before. Sometimes we’ll wait to call it, but that causes other problems and people get cranky. We do spend a lot of time making our call. Remember that Ferrari Day when they said it wouldn’t rain and it poured? We have no idea what it’s going to do 20% of the time it’s a close call.
Because of weather delays, we always have our “official” opening day and then we have our real opening day sometime after so this season, even though we started late is about normal. This is the Northwest! Not much has changed since we began.
Yearbook Error
We had an error when uploading the website’s Yearbook photos so we took that page down until it’s all fixed and looking like it should or some of you will twitch. We apologize for that. If you liked doors it was pretty good.
We also have to finish the yearbook shoot, but we’re still working on other opening details and there are only a few of us available to do all the work. We’ll get the Yearbook page corrected as fast as we can. It’s a lot of handwork.
Some asked what about the photographers having their page like on the old site. We may get to that at some point, but it’s a lot to manage and we don’t have enough volunteers on the back end to deal with that right now. We have too many other opening details to sort out. We will do something. There are too many great photos to not put something up somewhere.
Oh, and so you know, we’re far from done with our website. We’re still going to add more fun stuff. We keep making changes and we’ll be adding more pages and stuff to make it an even better read. We have a lot to do, but because we’re all doing this in our spare time, it’s something we squeeze around other stuff. We have lots of little tweaks, and new copy to drop in so keep checking back.
Breakfast at the Archer
From the time the Archer Hotel was opening, they have been wonderful to us and we will do all we can to support them. They will be open for breakfast beginning in May on Sunday and we’ll see about Saturday as well. Of course, other places are open at Redmond Town Center, so save your apatite and support RTC! Speaking of which-
Redmond Town Center
BTW, RTC really stepped up this year and it’s of critical importance that you show your support back to them. Please do some shopping there when you can. It’s important to all of our survival. This is a partnership and they are nice enough to host us, so please make it worth their while. I never understood that expression. Worth while… what does that even mean? What’s a while worth? What’s a while?
Also, let the store owners know you’re there from E@RTC so they know you know what we all know. Community is about helping each other so spend at RTC to help keep this whole thing going.
We’ll keep watching the weather for next week. Right now it looks like rain too, but that could all change. Two more weeks to lose weight! See you all soon!